四种气象数据在福岛核事故137Cs扩散模拟中的适用性
来源：中国环境科学杂志2024年第11期北京时间：
作者：李幻婷, 杨力, 宋嘉悦, 李新鹏, 方晟
单位：1. 华北电力大学核科学与工程学院, 北京 102206;2. 清华大学, 核能与新能源技术研究院, 北京 100084
摘要：LI Huan-ting1, YANG Li1, SONG Jia-yue1, LI Xin-peng1*, FANG Sheng2 (1.School of Nuclear Science and Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China；2.Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China). China Environmental Science, 2024,44(11)：6025~6035 Abstract:The local-scale atmospheric transport of 137Cs following the Fukushima accident was investigated using ensemble modelling based on four different meteorological inputs (FNL reanalysis data, ERA-Interim reanalysis data, GFS analysis and forecast data, and MEA field meteorological observations data). Two different types of atmospheric transport model were used, i.e., regional-scale meteorological model WRF and Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. The influence of different meteorological data was evaluated based on the monitoring data from two monitoring stations in Futaba and Naraha. The simulations showed that FLEXPART successfully reproduced most of the peaks at both stations using all four types of meteorological data (average FAC10 of Futaba:0.57; average FAC10 of Naraha:0.58). The simulations using ERA-Interim and MEA reproduce more peak observations and achieve more satisfactory statistical metrics than the others. The simulated spatial 137Cs distribution using four meteorological data were slightly different. The results of ERA-Interim and MEA showed a wider range of plumes, better reproducing the observations. Therefore, ERA-Interim and MEA are recommended for simulating the atmospheric 137Cs transport following the Fukushima nuclear accident at local scale.
关键词：放射性核素扩散,应急响应,WRF预报,FLEXPART,放射性核素浓度计算
基金资助：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(12105103);国家自然科学基金面上项目(12275152);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2024MS045);北京市自然科学基金杰出青年基金项目(JQ23011);中国核工业集团有限公司领创研究项目
