2025年西藏定日MS6.8地震前地震的固体潮触发检验

来源：大地测量与地球动力学杂志2026年第3期北京时间：

作者：李霞, 徐长朋

单位：1 山东省地震局, 济南, 250102],figList:[{captionCn:2015-04-20—2025-01-06期间发生的ML≥2.0地震空间分布及西藏定日MS6.8地震震中分布,magId:4970b8b3-84f5-43db-acc1-74325b4c69a9,labelCn:图1,pptUrl:20260307/ddclydqdlx-46-3-316-1.jpg.ppt,labelEn:Fig. 1,figUrl:20260307/ddclydqdlx-46-3-316-1.jpg,titleEn:Fig. 1 Epicenter distribution of earthquakes with ML≥2.0 from April 20, 2015 to January 6, 2025 and location of the epicenter of the Dingri MS6.8 earthquake in Xizang,titleCn:图1 2015-04-20—2025-01-06期间发生的ML≥2.0地震空间分布及西藏定日MS6.8地震震中分布,id:Fig1,captionEn:Epicenter distribution of earthquakes with ML≥2.0 from April 20, 2015 to January 6, 2025 and location of the epicenter of the Dingri MS6.8 earthquake in Xizang,thumbnailUrl:20260307/thumbnail/ddclydqdlx-46-3-316-1.jpg},{captionCn:研究区2015-04-20—2025-01-06地震目录完备性检验,magId:ea7e25e9-560a-4825-ad1e-53abd7323bff,labelCn:图2,pptUrl:20260307/ddclydqdlx-46-3-316-2.jpg.ppt,labelEn:Fig. 2,figUrl:20260307/ddclydqdlx-46-3-316-2.jpg,titleEn:Fig. 2 Completeness test of earthquake catalogue in the study area from April 20, 2015 to January 6, 2025,titleCn:图2 研究区2015-04-20—2025-01-06地震目录完备性检验,id:Fig2,captionEn:Completeness test of earthquake catalogue in the study area from April 20, 2015 to January 6, 2025,thumbnailUrl:20260307/thumbnail/ddclydqdlx-46-3-316-2.jpg},{captionCn:研究区2015-04-20—2025-01-06 ML≥2.0地震时序分布,magId:76483dda-33da-4168-ac45-2e0f86246b7a,labelCn:图3,pptUrl:20260307/ddclydqdlx-46-3-316-3.jpg.ppt,labelEn:Fig. 3,figUrl:20260307/ddclydqdlx-46-3-316-3.jpg,titleEn:Fig. 3 Time sequence distribution of ML≥2.0 earthquakes in the study area from April 20, 2015 to January 6, 2025,titleCn:图3 研究区2015-04-20—2025-01-06 ML≥2.0地震时序分布,id:Fig3,captionEn:Time sequence distribution of ML≥2.0 earthquakes in the study area from April 20, 2015 to January 6, 2025,thumbnailUrl:20260307/thumbnail/ddclydqdlx-46-3-316-3.jpg},{captionCn:选用地震的半日潮体应力与半月潮体应力相位角分布及其余弦函数拟合曲线(红色实线),magId:378fa038-d626-46ac-8c1d-b8a09cf07371,labelCn:图4,pptUrl:20260307/ddclydqdlx-46-3-316-4.jpg.ppt,labelEn:Fig. 4,figUrl:20260307/ddclydqdlx-46-3-316-4.jpg,titleEn:Fig. 4 The phase angle distribution of the semidiurnal tidal body stress and the semilunar tidal body stress of the selected earthquakes and the fitting curves of the cosine function (red solid line),titleCn:图4 选用地震的半日潮体应力与半月潮体应力相位角分布及其余弦函数拟合曲线(红色实线),id:Fig4,captionEn:The phase angle distribution of the semidiurnal tidal body stress and the semilunar tidal body stress of the selected earthquakes and the fitting curves of the cosine function (red solid line),thumbnailUrl:20260307/thumbnail/ddclydqdlx-46-3-316-4.jpg},{captionCn:2015-04-20—2025-01-20研究区P值随时间变化曲线,magId:caf2e6da-c4ef-47ba-bc11-7c56049b0f96,labelCn:图5,pptUrl:20260307/ddclydqdlx-46-3-316-5.jpg.ppt,labelEn:Fig. 5,figUrl:20260307/ddclydqdlx-46-3-316-5.jpg,titleEn:Fig. 5 Curve of P value variation with time in the study area from April 20, 2015 to January 20, 2025,titleCn:图5 2015-04-20—2025-01-20研究区P值随时间变化曲线,id:Fig5,captionEn:Curve of P value variation with time in the study area from April 20, 2015 to January 20, 2025,thumbnailUrl:20260307/thumbnail/ddclydqdlx-46-3-316-5.jpg},{captionCn:定日MS6.8地震前(2015-04-20—2025-01-06)震中及附近地区P值空间分布,magId:5f53d6ff-b0ad-44cc-9f17-24652b32c32c,labelCn:图6,pptUrl:20260307/ddclydqdlx-46-3-316-6.jpg.ppt,labelEn:Fig. 6,figUrl:20260307/ddclydqdlx-46-3-316-6.jpg,titleEn:Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of P value in the epicenter and its vicinity before Dingri MS6.8 earthquake from April 20, 2015 to January 6, 2025,titleCn:图6 定日MS6.8地震前(2015-04-20—2025-01-06)震中及附近地区P值空间分布,id:Fig6,captionEn:Spatial distribution of P value in the epicenter and its vicinity before Dingri MS6.8 earthquake from April 20, 2015 to January 6, 2025,thumbnailUrl:20260307/thumbnail/ddclydqdlx-46-3-316-6.jpg}

摘要：利用Schuster统计检验方法分析固体潮体应力与2025-01-07西藏定日MS6.8地震前发生在震中及附近区域中小地震之间的相关性。检验结果用统计参量P值来评价，P值越低，相关性统计显著性越强。从震源地半日潮和半月潮引发潮汐体力调制作用的相位角统计来看，半日潮检验结果P值为1.26%，低于潮汐应力触发阈值，多数地震发生在半日潮极小值附近；半月潮P值未通过显著性检验。进一步分析基于半日潮的P值时间平滑窗和空间平滑窗的统计结果显示，定日MS6.8地震前P值显著下降，空间低P值区域集中在定日MS6.8地震震中北侧。表明定日MS6.8地震前震中及附近区域中小地震的发生与固体潮触发有较明显相关性，对定日MS6.8地震的发生有一定的前兆意义。

关键词：定日MS6.8地震,潮汐体应力,相位角,Schuster检验

基金资助：山东省地震局科研项目(YB2501)